Posted on September 10, 2024
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ACC college football continues this week with 12 games.
I feature eight of them here as my choices for the “Top Games” for Week Three, and two others as my selections for “Best Bets.”
For each contest, I break down What’s at Stake and what both teams Must do to Win.
Last week, I went 6-4 straight up, hitting on 70 percent of my selections, giving me a 13-7 conference record through two weeks, 65% on the season.
My picks for this week, both against the spread and straight up, are included with each breakdown and are summarized in the table below.
Top Games
Louisiana Tech at NC State
Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: NC State -21.5
What’s at Stake: The Wolfpack need a bounce-back win after getting blown out by Tennessee. Louisiana Tech provides that opportunity.
The Bulldogs have three straight 3-win seasons and are nowhere near the same program they were 10 years ago.
But the Conference USA opponent is coming off a bye, making the matchup somewhat of a trap game.
Why Louisiana Tech Wins: The Bulldogs get their run game going early and it stays effective into the second half.
Why NC State Wins: The Wolfpack win the line of scrimmage on defense and force Louisiana Tech to throw the ball to beat them.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: NC State
Straight Up: NC State
Memphis at Florida State
Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, ESPN
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Florida State -6.5
What’s at Stake: Florida State is winless to start the year and can’t afford another defeat.
D.J. Uiagalelei has struggled through two games, throwing just a single touchdown pass.
Another loss at home could destroy the rest of the season.
Why Memphis Wins: The Tigers prevent Uiagalelei from moving the ball with his legs and make plays in the secondary on passing downs.
Why Florida State Wins: The Seminole ground game breaks out of its funk and substantially exceeds its 2.5 yards per carry average.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Florida State
Straight Up: Florida State
No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri
Saturday, Sept. 14
9:45 am PT, SEC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Missouri -16.5
What’s at Stake: The ACC takes on the SEC in a matchup between ranked opponents.
The game is one of just two contests this week that feature two Top 25 teams.
The ACC is 2-3 against the SEC to start the year.
Why Boston College Wins: The Eagles run the ball effectively and quarterback Thomas Castellanos connects on his throws for chunk plays through the air.
Why Missouri Wins: The Tiger offensive line wins the battles in the trenches and the offense has a solid balance between the run and pass.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Missouri
Straight Up: Missouri
West Virginia at Pitt
Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, ESPN2
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: West Virginia -2.5
What’s at Stake: In a landscape with precious few at-large bids to the Playoff, games against Power Conference opponents matter.
The Big 12 is 2-1 against the ACC so far this season, which could become a problem for the league if that trend is not reversed.
West Virginia is considered by some to be a dark horse in the Big 12—and it’s a rivalry game. The stakes are high.
Why West Virginia Wins: The Mountaineers establish their run game and bust chunk plays on the ground throughout the day.
Why Pitt Wins: The Panthers take care of the ball and running back Desmond Reid has a strong game.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia
Ball State at No. 10 Miami
Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Miami -36.5
What’s at Stake: The Hurricanes look to continue their march to the Playoff with an expected easy game against Ball State.
Cam Ward has thrown six touchdowns to just one interception this season and should have no problem with the Cardinals’ defense.
It could be a “stat night” for Ward’s Heisman campaign.
Why Ball State Wins: The Cardinals take advantage of a team that overlooks them by forcing multiple turnovers in the first half.
Why Miami Wins: The Miami offense throws the ball all over the field and its running backs bust plays through the Ball State defense.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Miami
Straight Up: Miami
Virginia Tech at Old Dominion
Saturday, Sept. 14
3:00 pm PT, ESPN+
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Virginia Tech -14
What’s at Stake: The Hokies play their second true-road game of the season and face their second Sun Belt opponent after beating Marshall last weekend.
Old Dominion almost beat South Carolina in Week One and the Monarchs are coming off a six-point loss to East Carolina in Week Two.
It’s an odd game for Virginia Tech to be playing and there’s plenty to lose.
Why Virginia Tech Wins: The Hokies handle Old Dominion’s balanced offense by taking away the pass and forcing at least one interception.
Why Old Dominion Wins: The Monarchs hold Virginia Tech’s ground game to below its season average of 141.5 yards per game.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Old Dominion
Straight Up: Virginia Tech
UConn at Duke
Saturday, Sept. 14
3:00 pm PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Duke -17.5
What’s at Stake: The Blue Devils are 2-0 and have set themselves up for a strong season.
Former Miami head coach, Manny Diaz, led Duke to a road victory over Northwestern last week.
Diaz has the program looking like it could be a surprise in the ACC this season.
Why UConn Wins: The Husky secondary steps up to make plays, forcing dropped balls and incomplete passes.
Why Duke Wins: Maalik Murphy makes the right decisions and executes passes without throwing an interception.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Duke
Straight Up: Duke
San Diego State at California
Saturday, Sept. 14
7:30 pm PT, ESPN
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: California -19.5
What’s at Stake: The Golden Bears are coming off one of their top wins in recent memory.
That sometimes can lead to a flat performance in the following game.
But San Diego State is in full rebuild mode and doesn’t have the personnel to seriously challenge Cal.
Why San Diego State Wins: The Aztecs take advantage of a Cal roster with its head not in the game by forcing drops, poor throws, and keeping the Bear running backs contained.
Why California Wins: The Golden Bears’ offensive line provides the time needed for Fernando Mendoza and the running backs to make plays. Justin Wilcox’s defense forces multiple turnovers and consistent third-down stops.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Cal
Straight Up: Cal
Best Bets
No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest
Saturday, Sept. 14
3:30 pm PT, The CW
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ole Miss -23.5
What’s at Stake: A top-ranked SEC team comes to Winston-Salem for a bigtime showdown.
Broadcast on national television, this game will grab attention and could be closer than some expect.
Wake Forest must feel disrespected by the spread and could come out with something to prove.
Why Ole Miss Wins: The Rebels’ defense gets pushed off of the line of scrimmage to frustrate Hank Bachmeier with pressure all game.
Why Wake Forest Wins: The Demon Deacons get defensive stops early in the contest to keep the crowd engaged and create points off turnovers.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Wake Forest
Straight Up: Ole Miss
Maryland at Virginia
Saturday, Sept. 14
5:00 pm PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Maryland -2.5
What’s at Stake: The ACC is 2-0 against the Big Ten and looks to continue that mark when Maryland comes to Charlottesville to take on the Cavaliers.
Virginia snuck by Wake Forest with a one-point win last weekend.
Why Maryland Wins: The Terps use a balanced mixture of run and pass plays to move the ball while the defense contains Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea on the ground.
Why Virginia Wins: The Cavaliers’ RPO plays are effective and the running backs find holes to move the ball in short-yardage situations.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Maryland
Straight Up: Maryland
Dane Miller’s ACC Game Picks
|
2024 Week 3 ACC Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
| Louisiana Tech at NC State Sep 14, 9:00 am PT |
 NC State |
| Memphis at Florida State Sep 14, 9:00 am PT |
Florida State |
| Boston College at Missouri Sep 14, 9:45 am PT |
Missouri |
| West Virginia at Pitt Sep 14, 12:30 pm PT |
West Virginia |
| Ball State at Miami Sep 14, 12:30 pm PT |
Miami |
| Virginia Tech at Old Dominion Sep 14, 3:00 pm PT |
Virginia Tech |
| UConn at Duke Sep 14, 3:00 pm PT |
Duke |
| Ole Miss at Wake Forest Sep 14, 3:30 pm PT |
Ole Miss |
| Maryland at Virginia Sep 14, 5:00 pm PT |
Maryland |
| San Diego State at California Sep 14, 7:30 pm PT |
California |
| Miller’s Overall ACC Record | 13-7 (65%) |
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Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
