No disrespect to the Wallabies; they have earned kudos by how they hosted the British and Irish Lions, and the Springboks will have to play solid rugby to win out at Ellis Park in Johannesburg and a week later at Cape Town Stadium.
Yet we all instinctively know Springbok coach, Rassie Erasmus, has his eyes set on September 6th. Since winning the last World Cup, no other Test match for the Springboks has risen to the occasion of this one.
Running out of the tunnel onto a dew-soaked Eden Park paddock will begin 80 minutes to determine whether the Springboks or the All Blacks are top of the Rugby union world.
South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus before the Qatar Airways Cup match at Twickenham Stadium, London. Picture date: Saturday June 22, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images)
For the Boks, winning at Eden Park will eliminate any doubt on who owns the current rivalry between these two titans. For Rassie Erasmus and his coaching team, the next two matches against Australia present his last opportunity to cement his New Zealand travelling squad and tighten up the match-ready 23. It’s a fair bet that, short of any injuries, the starting forward pack and forward bench against Australia, plus or minus one or two changes at 8th man and flanker, will be kept intact.
Look for Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse to start in New Zealand and Damien Willemse at fullback. Edwill van der Merwe and Canan Moodie will make the squad with good performances at Ellis Park.
More questions remain with regard to the half-backs. Grant Williams will solidify his starting role in New Zealand with a breakout performance at Ellis Park. Anything less will keep this position up in the air until the final whistle in Cape Town against the Australians.
Fly-half presents the greyest picture. Even if Manie Libbok kicks at 90% on Saturday, Erasmus knows that Eden Park presents another level of mental pressure for Libbok. He has only played twice against the All Blacks, the last time back in August 2023 in a friendly warm-up match before the Rugby World Cup later that year.
As much as Erasmus wants Libbok to succeed in all phases of his game, he knows that statistically the Test match at Eden Park is likely to come down to a difference between nailing a penalty and converting a try; points count.
Should Libbok’s kicking falter at Ellis Park, Erasmus can rely on his fullback, Aphelele Fassi, to back him up, but that scenario then assumes at least 9 to 12 points have already been left on the table. Against Australia that deficit can arguably be banked – not against the All Blacks; not at Eden Park.
Based on a study analysing 582 international rugby union matches from 2002 to 2011, a team kicks for points (conversions and penalty goals) on average 5.9 times per match – let’s round that to 6 times.
For Libbok, his road to Eden Park means he will need a standout match at Ellis Park and be at a 100% conversion rate for kicks at poles under five times and a single miss allowed for any further attempts.
Anything short of that puts Handre Pollard in line for the start in Cape Town with Sasha Feinberg-Mngomezulu on the bench. On the assumption Pollard does what is expected of him for 50 or so minutes and Feinberg-Mngomezulu does too, they will travel to the land of the long white cloud.
